October 31, 2004

Absolutely Amazingly Insightfulrality Election Analysis

With all the daily polls, pundit chatter, ad campaigns and media converage, the main reason I think John Kerry will win is the same reason I thought six months ago: how many people do you think voted for Gore will vote for Bush?

And how many people who voted for Bush will vote for Kerry?

Even anecdotally, think of the dozens of newspapers that endorsed Bush in 2000 who are either endorsing Kerry or no one.

Gore won the popular vote. He lost Florida through a combination of voter disenfranchisement and human error (i.e. the poorly-design butterfly ballot).

And you think Kerry might lose?

How can he not win?

I know most Kerry supporters think Kerry will win, and most Bush supporters think Bush will win. Here's my prediction anyway: Kerry 50.5%, Bush 48.5. Kerry 287 Bush 251. Post your own prediction is you want.

Also, curses are stupid. Go Skins.

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