The November Surprise

I've told so many people why Kerry is in good shape to win Virginia that I think I forgot one of the obvious places to make the case, here.

The most recent poll, Oct. 6, has Kerry down by only 3%. The poll was done by Zogby International, the polling firm that nailed the popular vote in the 1996 and 2000 presidential elections.

Also, and this isn't a guarantee, but in past incumbent elections undecided voters go to the challenger by a 2 to 1 margin. The one exception in the past 24 years is Reagan v. Mondale in 1984, where Reagon got 1/2 of undecided voters. Curse you, Reaaaaaaaaagan! So if history is a guide, Kerry should pick up an extra 1-2% just from the breakdwon of the 6% undecided voters in Virginia.

Furthermore, and I don't know if this is an issue for the Zogby polls, but polls in general tend to undercount newly registered voters. Or not count them at all. Read the methodology for The Washington Post's daily tracking poll. If I am reading it right, it doesn't count anyone who didn't vote in the 2000 election unless they have just reached voting age. And just almost every state that's even close, including Virginia, has had record registration numbers.

That's one reason why a strong Get Out The Vote operation--registering people, identifying Democrats, following up to make sure they vote on election day--can shift a campaign 2-3% towards one candidate. There's a significant number of people out there that, even in elections like this, will only vote if they were pushed. And that's why most polling organizations don't count them. I was talking to someone at dinner at night who said she wasn't sure if she was going to vote because she was registered in Oakton (about 45. min away from her current place). Place an absentee ballot in that person's hand and that's an extra vote. (Note to self: replace multiple packs of Tic-Tacs with spare absentee ballots.)

Look at the campaigning in Virginia. Or lack of it. In one way, we've been blessed that the two candidates didn't call Virginia a battleground state. I'm mad enough without having my Futurama reruns interrupted by Swift Boat ads. But that also means that, if anything is going to make a difference, it's going to be the grassroots effort.

And here's the idealistic part. Wouldn't it be great if we could overwhelm the scattershot Bush volunteers with a flood of people? Wouldn't it be great if Bush and Karl Rove lost the election because while they rigged the election in Florida and Ohio, they forgot to practice voter fraud in Virginia?

I think volunteering in Virginia is worth it just to make Bush shit himself. Losing New York isn't going to make Bush shit himself. But losing Virginia--oh, my friends. The river will be running that night.