Willy Wonka's Fantastical Crisis Machine

I will go on record now as saying that I think President Bush's proposal to privatize Social Security will turn out to be a political blunder (I'm assuming you know why it's bad on policy grounds). Two reasons, both relating to how he was able to convince many people that Iraq was an imminent threat to the United States.

One, people's fears over national security, influenced by 9/11, made them more open towards taking drastic actions. Essentially, many people accepted the administration's argument that it's better to be safe than sorry ("we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud").

Social Security doesn't tap into this primal fear of being hurt or killed that cuts across all age groups. It involves the fear of financial security, something less emotionally intense than personal security, and a fear that only affects a subset of the population, namely people receiving checks or about to receive them in the near future.

The lesser degree of fear, as compared to the overall mood invading Iraq, will make it harder for illogical or specious arguments to sway people.

The second reason why President Bush will find creating a false crisis much more difficult for Social Security than Iraq is that there is much more solid information available to Bush's opponents this time. Before the war, the state of Saddam Hussien's weapons programs were unknown. There were people claiming that we were vastly over-estimating the state of his weapons capabilities, but there was no convincing proof.

With Social Security, most of President Bush's statements can be fact-checked. The division between truth and deception is much more clear and it makes it easier for newspapers to say the truth without appearing biased and for people to evaluate the President's claims itself.

For example, take the President's claims that the Social Security system is in a crisis. Counter-answer: if we did absolutely nothing, and the economy did poorly, the trust fund would still pay 70% of benefits in 2042.

That's the type of simple, easily-understood response that was absent during what passed as the pre-war debate. Already, there is a sign that Bush is backing off the word "crisis" and switching to "problem" (search for "crisis problem", 2/3 down).

A multi-million dollar ad campaign financed by banking institutions plus intense lobbying can change a lot. But the initial indications is that Democrats are united, Republicans are wary of committing right now, and Bush's re-use of his successful "Create a Crisis" strategy may backfire as the trust it needs to pull off has eroded due to the aftermath of Iraq.

It can be done, especially with a Republican-controlled Congress, but it will take amazing political skills plus Democratic bungling to make it happen.

And everyone has permission of rubbing this in my face if I'm wrong.