Election Roundup

The four most important states in terms of EVs are Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio. I'm posting my take here in hope I will look like a soothsayer tomorrow. I am also keeping my finger on the delete button. No mistake will be left behind.

• Pennsylvania: In the bag for Kerry.
• Florida: Forty five percent of America still thinks Bush did not legitimately win the election in 2000. And a lot of them are pissed off Democrats in Florida willing to wait five hours in the blistering heat just to cast their vote. Jeb Bush can't stop this one. Kerry takes it.
• Ohio: I will go on record and say I will be absolutely shocked if this isn't the closest state in the nation this year. 50/50. If Kerry wins, it will be because of an edge in the GOTV operation, but I wouldn't bet on it.
• Wisconsin: I haven't been following this one, but if Kerry splits Florida and Ohio, winning this will switch the race from one candidate (likely Kerry) winning by a razor-thin margin to a candidate having a sizable lead.

Armchair analysis is fun. Give it a try.