Mind Your Ps, Screw the Qs

You get to see one of the writing exercises I did today. Lucky you.

***

Perry Precinct presided over the popular People's Palace, a place of public pleasure that, privately, people portrayed as a pretense for the "Perfects" to push aside Peroria's paramount problems and play up their power over their pawns.

Perry's part in this predetermined play was perfunctory. Pass predictions. Perform with passion. Please the plebians.

"Perry! Perry!" Phineas pushed past the pair of pattern-mechs protecting Perry. The pats were unperturbed and permitted his passage. When proclaiming his presence, Phineas was as passionately a prisoner to a pattern as the pattern-mechs.

New Rules for Holidays

We need stricter criteria for judging who gets to celebrate holidays. For Veteran's Day, the only people who should get off are veterans. Or at least rename the holiday, "Veterans, Government Workers, Some Private Businesses, Groggy and Not Wanting To Come Into Work So I'll Call In Sick Cough Cough Day."

And Columbus Day is a joke. If you haven't subjugated at least one Native American in the past five years, get off the gravy train and go to work.

For Father's Day, your children need to have been planned. No more getting presents from accidents.

For the Fourth of July, almost everybody gets to stay home. The exception: Rush Limbaugh listeners and other chickenhawks, who get a two-week tour of duty in Iraq. And if there's room on the plane, we cen send over a few devout Christians who supported the war and think there's an asterisk next to "Thou Shalt Not Kill".

Rumsfeld: Fallujah Civilians Were Warned

(article link)

In a Fallujah home (translated from Arabic):

[ring ring]

Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Hello?"
Rumsfeld: "Hello. Is there a Mr. or Ms. al-Alquaa in?"
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Who is this?"
Rumsfeld: "This is Donald. Are you Ms. al-Alquaa?"
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Yes."
Rumsfeld: "Hello ma'am. Please excuse my Arabic. I've been out of practice since the 80s."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "What do you want?"
Rumsfeld: "I'm just calling to warn you that the U.S.-lead coalition is going to invade the city tomorrow. Things could get kind of rough out there, so you may want to stay inside for the next few weeks."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "The whole time? How am I supposed to buy food? How is my husband supposed to go to work? What are my kids going to do?"
Rumsfeld: "I know it will be very trying, but you'll just have to bear through it and…and…excuse me." [Rumsfeld coughs several times and clears his throat]
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Are you alright?"
Rumsfeld: "I'm fine. My voice is just getting sore. I've been talking for a few days straight now."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Wait a minute. Are you calling every single one of the 250,000 residents in Fallujah?"
Rumsfeld: "Oh, no. Of course not. Gen. Tommy Franks is doing L-Z."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "…But most of our names start with 'al'."
Rumsfeld: "I know that now. Tommy can be very good at getting out of work when he wants to."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Well, I appreciate you going out of your way to warn us. I'll see if my family wants to stick it out or move in with our relatives."
Rumsfeld: "Where are your relatives?"
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Tikrit."
Rumsfeld: "Do you have any relatives in other places?"
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "I have a few cousins in Baghdad."
Rumsfeld: "Uh, yeah. The thing about Baghdad is--"
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Okay. Najaf?"
Rumsfeld: "That wouldn't be a good idea."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Samarra?"
Rumsfeld: "Nope."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Kut?"
Rumsfeld: "Sorry."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Sadr City?"
Rumsfeld: "Are you kidding?"
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Ramadi?"
Rumsfeld: "No…wait. What was that last one?"
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Ramadi?"
Rumsfeld: "Oh, god no. Especially not Ramadi."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "Hock ba-sarat! That's all the Iraqi relatives I have. My only other option is to sneak into Iran and have my family stay with my husband's half brother."
Rumsfeld: "Look, this is on the hush hush, but you do NOT want to move into Iran right now. Especially if you're still going to be there in January."
Sadhri al-Alquaa: "I guess we have no choice then. We'll stay here."
Rumsfeld: "Okay. But don't say I didn't warn you."

The Five Stages of Grief

As they relate to the election.

Denial
I can't fucking believe this.

Anger
What the fuck is wrong with people?

Bargaining
I promise to be happy that Bush won if he promises to stop being such a fuck-up.

Depression
We're so fucking screwed.

Acceptance
I'm moving to Canada.

***

I am struck by how many people seized on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' "Five Stages of Grief" to deal with the aftershock of the election.

Kubler-Ross proposed the stages in her 1969 book "On Death and Dying" as a description of the process terminally ill patients go through in accepting their illnesses. The stages quickly metamorphized and entered pop culture as an outline of the way people handle grief in their own lives.

For me, the stages aren't distinct segments that I go through and move on, never to return. They're more like favorite restaurants I revisit repeatedly, some more than others because Denial and Anger run coupons in The Washington Post often and the maitre'd at Acceptance Lounge and Piano Bar hates me ever since the last time I visited.

What happened is that the restaurant was closing, and the maitre'd came over and said in a snide voice, "If you need to be reminded what types of payment the establishment accepts, I will be happy to refresh your memory." I got up from my table and responded: "That won't be necessary. I got something you can accept: a punch in the stomach."

The maitre'd wailed. "What are you doing?" I cocked my fist. "It's called a mandate...for kicking your ass." I punched him a few more times and then walked about the door.

So it will be a while until I can visit there again. But isn't America awesome?

Get Your Giggles On

Need a laugh? Get Your War On.

Why Voting Is Like Sex...IN 2084!!!

You have to wait in line to do it

You can only do it once every 4 years

It involves pressing lots of buttons on a screen

The actual process takes 15 seconds

There is absolutely no need for a Bush or a Dick

You get a sticker when you're finished

You will be told how everyone else did it later that night

Play Some Video Games

Or watch a movie. Or chat with a friend.

If you're feeling depressed, especially if you've been working to get Kerry elected, take a break and do something fun.

I might post occasionally in the next few days, but I'm taking a breather from the pure political posts.

I rented Fable, an XBox game. I'm going to the library tomorrow. Maybe I'll write some comedy to help me deal with my anger.

If you're looking for some laughs, I have one thing to say to you. What the hell are you doing at my web page?

Okay, two things. Read The Onion.

Kerry Concedes

The number of provisional ballots isn't enough to give him a victory. I'm glad he conceded now rather than later.

Is it possible for a person who doesn't mention God in every other sentence to win the Presidency? Our history says no. I think the tactic for secularists and progressive religious people is not to combat religion but to change the discussion on what it means to be a good religious person. Kerry went for this angle very late in the campaign, with comments like, "Words without deeds have no meaning."

I think combining liberal ideals with religion can be a very effective tactic. It's atrocious the way politicans who regularly profess their devotion to God construct policies that hurt the poor in the country and eschew changes like raising the minimum wage, which there is a lot of good evidence would help the country as a whole.

In fact, I think this is a large part of the reason why Barack Obama energizes so many people. He combines the two eloquently. His speech during the Democratic Convention still gives me chills: "I am my brother's keeper."

What better combination of religion and liberalism is there?

Keep Your Chin Up

Maybe it's too early to talk about what the next step is. But I've been buoyed by a lot of posts on Daily Kos, a mix of a political blog and an web site for liberal activists.

Not a lot of optimism there, but a feeling that while this was a huge loss, it's just one battle in a long war that needs to be fought by anyone who's commitment to their country goes beyond voting every 4 years.

It's too early for many, including me, to start asking, "What can I do to help?" It's time to reflect and let the shock settle down. But I hope all of you plant the idea in your mind of doing something in the next 4 years to help our country take a small step towards a better path.

Update: I share Kevin Drum's outlook.

Ohio

I should say that while John Kerry only has an outside chance to win Ohio, it is still a chance. oh, fuck. It comes down to the number of provisional and absentee ballots, and if there are any reasons why the ballots would strongly go towards Kerry (e.g. provisional ballots being given mainly to people challenged by Republican poll watchers).

Going against Kerry is a Republican Secretary of State, public sentiment against another drawn-out battle, and months of pre-election legal wrangling by Republicans specifically done for an occasional like this.

I think the best solution in terms of limiting damage to our democracy while upholding its principles has two parts.

One, an immediate counting of a random sample of the ballots so we can have an idea if a full count in necessary. Kerry should offer to accept the findings of the sample as a predictor of whether to carry on.

Two, an extra day to vote for anyone who wanted to do so but was turned away by the extremely long lines.

This is a real problem that some people in Ohio faced. It's great when people wait 4 hours in line to vote, but it shouldn't be a requirement. There are some people who wanted to vote but couldn't wait several hours to do so because of their job, family duties, and so on.

It comes down to the question: is relatively easy voting a right or a privilege? I consider it a right, and legal theory may too. One hour is a reasonable amount of time to wait, but we're not a Third World country. No one should have to miss a half day or work or leave their kids home for hours so he or she can vote. And as this would only affect a sliver of the population, it wouldn't require a great number of polling places to be open or volunteers to pull it off.

If we act quickly, we can have Ohio settled in less than two weeks and in a way that is at least better than the way we settled Florida 4 years ago. It's important that there are no doubts surrounding the legitimacy of any President, and letting people who turned away when waiting in line switched from inconvenience to burden is a pro-democracy move that both sides should favor.

It's easy to be against lawsuits. Would the President find as much support for denying the rights of people who wanted to vote?

At least...

...the Daily Show will be hilarious for the next four years.

...um, Bushisms, Vol. 3?

I'm out of ideas. Anyone?

After the 2000 election, I shrugged my shoulders and said, "Well, maybe he'll do a decent job."

Now I'm just depressed. I had a horrible night of sleep. Most people weren't enthusiastic about voting for Kerry as opposed to voting against Bush, but I was. In my heart, I truly believe he would have made a great President. His commitment to public service over his life is much greater than most politicians. He would have brought Republicans into his administration and likely have helped bridge the divide in this country.

I'll give Bush a second chance. Maybe "I'm a uniter, not a divider" the sequel will do better than the original. Maybe things in Iraq will turn around, the Republican Congress will make fiscally responsible decisions, and we will find diplomatic solutions to the growing problem of Iran and North Korea.

But it won't surprise anyone to know that I don't think hope is on the way.

The true test of Democrats and progressives is how we respond to this loss. Do we lash out at each other, scapegoat the campaign, our strategy, gay marriage, voters who stayed home, the public itself, and so on? Do all of the celebrities, bloggers, first and long-time activists give up and let them rule without being checked? Or after we lick or wounds do we learn from our mistakes, improve our strategy and coalition and return as a force in 2006 and 2008?

I hope it's the latter. I strongly suspect, like most second term administrations, this one will be rocked by scandal. And if our country is still on a wobbly path two years from now, with a Republican-controlled Congress and presidency, maybe voters will be more open to holding those in power accountable.

Exit Poll Failure

Here's what I don't get. With 87% of the precincts reporting, John Kerry is down 100,000 votes in Ohio (2%).

But the exit poll has Kerry leading 51-49 with men, and 53-47 with women. In other words, he should be in the lead. Why are the exit polls, in this state and others, so unreliable? It seems almost all of them overestimated Kerry's share of the vote.

Or, for the tin-foil theorists out there, maybe it's fixed Diebold voting machines. (Note: As far as I know, Ohio banned electronic voting in most of its counties).

...

What can I say? I'm utterly depressed. I know it's not over, but I don't see Kerry winning Ohio, and he needs it to win.

I've been reading a few web sites to see how I was so completely wrong about this election. I'm sure there are many reasons, but one of the main ones is that it appears the polls were assuming a young voter turn-out that just didn't happen.

In response to this, I have a request. Mr. Bush, please: Bring back the draft.

A few of the reasons I was so confident is that it seemed that this time there were a lot of disparate forces banding together to defeat Bush, from celebrities to GOTV organizations such as MoveOn and ACT. His apporval ratings have been around 50, typically a ceiling for incumbents. And I assumed the stories of high-turnout out would benefit Kerry and give him the bump to win.

After I get over my depression, I'm going to be interested to learn just what happened here. I mean, I was extremely optimistic on Kerry's chances. But I'm obviously wrong about several of my asumptions and didn't account for a few trends. One of them is likely overestimating high turnout helping Kerry. I have a hunch both sides turned out in force.

Another shocker: Kerry losing Virginia by 8%. Just dumbfounds me. Every poll in the past few months had him between 3-6%. There was high turn-out in democratic-heavy Northern Virginia. After the polls closed, the announcers held off giving Virginia to Bush for a while because it was too close to call.

So what happened? My first guess is that there was a huge difference between the exit polls which the "too close to call" comments were based on and the actual results. But why such a dramatic difference betwwen the exit polls and the results

I'll read about it later. Right now, I need to go into a cocoon.

Election Roundup

The four most important states in terms of EVs are Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio. I'm posting my take here in hope I will look like a soothsayer tomorrow. I am also keeping my finger on the delete button. No mistake will be left behind.

• Pennsylvania: In the bag for Kerry.
• Florida: Forty five percent of America still thinks Bush did not legitimately win the election in 2000. And a lot of them are pissed off Democrats in Florida willing to wait five hours in the blistering heat just to cast their vote. Jeb Bush can't stop this one. Kerry takes it.
• Ohio: I will go on record and say I will be absolutely shocked if this isn't the closest state in the nation this year. 50/50. If Kerry wins, it will be because of an edge in the GOTV operation, but I wouldn't bet on it.
• Wisconsin: I haven't been following this one, but if Kerry splits Florida and Ohio, winning this will switch the race from one candidate (likely Kerry) winning by a razor-thin margin to a candidate having a sizable lead.

Armchair analysis is fun. Give it a try.

Onion Flashback

This is the article The Onion wrote about Bush's inauguration four years ago. At first I thought they rewrote it a few months ago. It's that prescient.

Irrational Exuberance?

I don't know why I feel so excited about tomorrow, but it's almost the identical feeling I had as a kid the night before Christmas. Yes, Santa may misread my request for a NES system and give me a plaid-laid Nerd Enterprise Sweater instead, but I'm feeling good nonetheless.

Like Leader, Like Follower

Even-handedness is a fine principle to live by and a critical part of thinking reasonably. If you hear of Republicans trying to suppress the vote in African-American communities, it behooves you to search for similar activities from Democrats before jumping to the conclusion that "Republicans are worse than Democrats".

But there is no cosmic law that says Democrats and Republicans take equal part in slimy political tricks, even though the media, either through cynicism or fear of complaints of "the liberal media" often tries too hard to give moral equivalency to the actions of both parties.

I am more hesitant than most to say that Republicans are dirtier than Democrats in Presidential campaigns because, on some level, it's what I want to believe. If anything, I think it is better to argue that certain political advisers and staff members engage in more dirty tricks than their counterparts.

But if you want a good, ol' fashion "We're better than they there" story, read about this experiment that ABC News did. They entered campaign rallies of both candidates wearing T-shirts that would be certain to rub the attendees' the wrong way.

And while the influence of a "they're both the same" viewpoint is evident in the headline and how they put the differences they found later in the story, they are still clear contrasts in how each campaign handles dissenters. One of the quotes:

And at Kerry's Boca Raton rally, one of the faithful Democrats could be seen calming a woman upset at the sight of the Bush-Cheney T-shirts.

"Feel proud that we let them in," he said. "That's what democracy is all about, that's what we're fighting for."

That is what we're fighting for, isn't it?

(link originally from TPM)

Voting Info

Election Protection Hotline:
1-866-MYVOTE1 to report problems
1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687-8683) for immediate legal assistance

Where do I vote? (Has other info, including link to local election board web site)

Most places open at 7:00 a.m. I suggest getting to your polling as soon as possible. There are going to be a ton of people trying to vote after work. I don't know what it will be like in Maryland and Virginia, but people in Florida are waiting over 5 hours to vote (the accounts of people waiting so long are inspiring).

The Prince Remix: "Invade a Country Like It's 1999"

I know at this point, no one is going to read yet another article about something horrible Bush has done and say: "Okay, the first 314 were fine. But number 315 is the last straw. I'm voting for Kerry."

But it's important to me that people know the depth of how truly deceptive the Bush administration was in painting the war in Iraq as some sort of response to 9/11.

Judge the accuracy of this yourself, but Bush's former ghost writer says Bush was talking about invading Iraq in 1999. Or ask yourself, why was the administration have planning meetings about a war with Iraq only two months after 9/11?
(both links from TPM)

And 52% of Americans still thinks Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda. I think the administration's way of planting false beliefs into the minds of a majority of the public is the great untold story of the past four years.

Absolutely Amazingly Insightfulrality Election Analysis

With all the daily polls, pundit chatter, ad campaigns and media converage, the main reason I think John Kerry will win is the same reason I thought six months ago: how many people do you think voted for Gore will vote for Bush?

And how many people who voted for Bush will vote for Kerry?

Even anecdotally, think of the dozens of newspapers that endorsed Bush in 2000 who are either endorsing Kerry or no one.

Gore won the popular vote. He lost Florida through a combination of voter disenfranchisement and human error (i.e. the poorly-design butterfly ballot).

And you think Kerry might lose?

How can he not win?

I know most Kerry supporters think Kerry will win, and most Bush supporters think Bush will win. Here's my prediction anyway: Kerry 50.5%, Bush 48.5. Kerry 287 Bush 251. Post your own prediction is you want.

Also, curses are stupid. Go Skins.