As Howard Dean's candidacy surges, some Democrats who haven't placed orders for their Dean "Rebel With a Cause!" shirts fret that he will win the party nomination. They fear he is unelectable.
Dean may be unelectable. I don't have the political acumen to sense if he's George McCarthy or Paul McCartney. Or Ringo. But there are a few lessons from the last election we may be ignoring:
1. The Gore campaign was salivating to run against Bush and fearful McCain would win the Republican nomination, much in the same way the Bush campaign is praying to Jesus that Dean gets the nomination and slipping Satan a few grand to ensure Clark doesn't. There may be a similar failing of convention wisdom with Dean.
2. One reason Bush was elected is because he isn't Clinton. In the eyes of a Republican, Bush lost 3.3 million jobs in the past three years: blow jobs, hand jobs… I think voter disgust with how Clinton acted in the White House is why Bush is there now. And if Bush is kicked out, it won't be because the improving economy is still worse off than when he took office. It will be because middle-ground voters will perceive that Bush has unforgivable failings, even one or two, that the opposing candidate doesn't have. What makes possible Bush matchups hard to predict is that no one knows for sure which of Bush's failings will resonate with voters, if any (war in Iraq?), and thus which candidate will best match up against him.
My point is that convention wisdom holds up sometimes, and sometimes it doesn't, and this is one of those times that it may fall flat on its face. I personally think Dean is the least electable of the major contenders, but he's beaten expectations enough times to weaken my doubt in him.
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